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Jan 2026

8MP’s supplementary power bills have nearly tripled from Rs 607 crore in FY15 to Rs 1709 crore in FY23, underscoring how delayed tariff recognition can snowball into a major cost overhang for power utilities—and eventually, consumers.
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8HPERC is being asked to decide whether extreme weather belongs in tariff design, not just disaster reports
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8The state regulator rules that transmission, wheeling, and SLDC charges cannot be levied when generation and evacuation are crippled by force majeure events
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1) Critical coal list swells; median buffer just 0.60 days
8Twenty thermal stations appear on the “critical stock” roster on 2025-12-31; the median available stock among them is 0.60 days, and 10 units show zero days.
Inference: Concentration across imported-coal and washery-reject plants suggests supply chain exposure rather than a system-wide drawdown
Why it matters: Razor-thin buffers raise near-term curtailment risk and spot power dependence, with direct pass-through to retail bills if short-term prices harden.

2) Imported-coal users dominate the extreme end of risk
86 of 7 imported-coal plants on the critical list have ≤3 days of stock; 4 of these report 0 days.
Inference: Import logistics and voyage timing compress buffers around year-end; the same sheet shows multiple imported fleets clustered near zero
Why it matters: Higher FX-linked fuel risk can spill into Rs/kWh volatility on short notice.

3) Telangana’s split-screen: one plant at zero, another at 3.21 days
8Ramagundam-B TPS shows 0.00 days, while Bhadadri TPP has 3.21 days on 2025-12-31.
Inference: Plant-specific logistics and coal-path diversity inside the same state utility
Why it matters: Intra-state divergence elevates dispatch juggling and DSM exposure windows even without headline deficits.

4) Private IPPs show thin buffers: Amravati 4.42 days; BALCO 2.24 days
8Two prominent IPPs on the list carry 4.42 days (Amravati) and 2.24 days (BALCO) of coal on 2025-12-31.
Inference: Vendor-mix and rake availability near calendar close
Why it matters: Thin buffers push IPPs toward market-sourced balancing; any MCP firming can lift Rs pass-throughs where PPAs permit.

5) Washery-reject cluster: 4 of 7 plants at ≤3 days
8Among washery-reject-based stations on the critical list, 4 of 7 show ≤3 days of stock on 2025-12-31.
Inference: Feedstock supply synchronisation issues and lower onsite buffers typical of these units
Why it matters: Localised curtailment risk can rise even when national averages look comfortable.

6) Dadri gas complex pulled into reserve shutdown across year-end
8Four 130.19-MW gas units at Dadri GPS are tagged “Reserve Shutdown”, with outage stamps on 2025-12-30 and 2026-01-01—effectively ~520.76 MW not available each day.
Inference: Seasonal gas economics and merit-order effects near New Year
Why it matters: Reduces flexible ramp in NCR during morning/evening shoulders, nudging system toward costlier alternatives if demand tightens.

7) Long-running outages at Tanda keep 440 MW offline
8Tanda TPS Units 1–4 (110 MW each) remain out with outage starts 2025-06-30 (U1-U2) and 2025-08-31 (U3-U4).
Inference: Extended refurb/regulatory holds; all entries sit in the planned-outage table with no revival timestamps in the extracted slice
Why it matters: Persistent baseload unavailability narrows headroom and can tighten Rs/kWh outcomes when coincident with other outages.

8) Zero-day cases cut across fuel arrangements—not just ‘no-linkage’ plants
810 plants show 0.00 days of coal on 2025-12-31, spanning Imported, Linkage, No-linkage, and Washery-reject categories.
Inference: Year-end delivery gaps and staggered rake/voyage schedules hitting multiple supply chains at once
Why it matters: Diversified exposure means system operators can’t assume risk is siloed; broader vigilance on short-term procurement is warranted.
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8The variation-nearly 8 paise/unit month-to-month-signals tightening marginal power costs heading into Q4 FY 2025-26, relevant for both MSEDCL-linked inter-state adjustments and SLDC dispatch economics. Regulators and consumers alike face a volatile cost trajectory despite consistent procedural compliance by BESCOM.
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8The twin refunds will temporarily ease retail bills across HESCOM’s service area before tariff true-ups resume in FY 2026.
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8It covers disputes arising under any HPPCL procurement - including works, goods, and services, and even PPP contracts - offering 85% of net award value for court awards and 65% for arbitral awards.
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8By defending its pending projects and linking each to petition cases, BSPTCL aims to safeguard its admissible ARR for FY26-27.
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8RVPN formalises bid-opening governance ahead of offline TBCB pre-bid tie-up
8Bond rules soften, but exit discipline remains intact
8JDVVNL mandates online IPR filing through Raj-ERP Power for 2025 declarations
8Volume up, value flat: Jaipur Discom’s expanding network struggles to convert growth into financial relief
8Housing rules reset for Rajasthan power staff on deputation
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8The power regulator regularised past lapses without imposing fines, while underlining that future RPO delays may not receive similar leniency
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1) Thermal recovery steadies national supply as hydro and nuclear ebb
8The system remained deficit-free across regions, showing strong supply adequacy even as RE growth slowed marginally. The data signal a post-monsoon transition toward baseload stability and winter-season dispatch re-balancing

2) Short-term market share rises despite lower national supply as DAM volumes rebound in November 2025
8CEA’s Monthly Market Monitoring Reports for October and November 2025 show India’s total electricity supply dipping 6.4 % MoM to 123 BU, but the short-term market share edged up to 18.18 % of total supply as the Day Ahead Market expanded 19 %. Power-exchange transactions held steady at 12.8 BU while bilateral trades inched higher and deviations fell 15 %.
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8The Commission has directed KSEBL to rerun the study using CEA’s upcoming ‘STELLAR’ software and align future analyses with KSERC’s own Renewable Energy & Net Metering Regulations 2024.
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8CSERC grants feeder exemption to Western Coke’s 4.4 MW captive solar plant
8State redraws the rulebook for biomass power, mixing tariff certainty with a clear exit to bidding
8Biomass tariff norms for FY 2026–31 enter public consultation phase
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8Despite years of reminders, several major hydro stations still lack completed mock black-start trials. Data now records plant-wise excuses, missing dates, and OEM dependencies. Patience is thinning. March 2026 reads like a regulatory cliff edge.
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1) WRPC’s Communication Backbone Under Strain
8From ad-hoc fixes to structural overhaul are being done as RE load, cyber risk, and asset age collide. The sharpest tension lies between urgent capital expenditure proposals-new OPGW, repeaters, FOTEs-and regulatory scrutiny over cost justification, AMC ceilings, and governance discipline.

2) WRPC’s October 2025 paradox
8Demand “fully met” on paper, but the month quietly ran 20% below its own planning baseline. Operationally, the most telling anomaly is that the visible shortfalls are explained as “frequency correction” even when frequency is reported at 49.95–49.99, implying the system used frequency governance as the reason code for shaving the last few MW rather than calling it supply stress

3) NER’s transmission bill snaps down in Jan’26
8Not because the region got “lighter”, but because Assam’s AC component collapses while Tripura quietly widens its waiver play. Net: the latest month reads like one dominant payer’s transmission profile being re-written, with a secondary signal that waiver strategy is becoming an active lever for at least one NER state.

4) BGTPP’s Quiet Cost Creep
8NTPC Bongaigaon emerges as a textbook case of how technical degradation, once accepted provisionally, hardens into a recurring commercial burden for beneficiaries And how degradation, compensation normalisation, and grid discipline slippage are converging into a regional risk

5) North East: From Compliance to Crisis
8How Protection audits and grid disturbances are colliding in the North-East Power System, Most tellingly, non-compliance on FIR, DR, and EL submissions is emerging as a silent regulatory exposure that could soon attract sharper oversight from CEA and MoP.

6) From Grid Discipline to Grid Exposure
8OCCM’s quiet shift from enforcement to risk containment in the North East

7) Southern Region’s discipline story flips
8Tamil Nadu’s RTDA shock cools, but Karnataka becomes the new deviation payer while nuclear and wind volatility reshuffle the bill.

8) North: Haryana’s transmission deviation bill collapses
8While NR’s hydro corridor quietly ramps up deviation exposure. Net-net, the grid’s “headline improvement” is real in one corner (Haryana drawal), but the documents show a structural tension: discipline gains on one DIC can coincide with new injection-side drift elsewhere, and the bill doesn’t shrink-it moves.

9) National SCED volumes cool in November, but pool losses deepen
8Persistent backing-down of higher-cost southern units remains a structural feature. For system operators and regulators, the divergence between lower SCED volumes and higher net losses highlights the growing financial sensitivity of marginal cost spreads.
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8Non-coking coal prices softened in November, pulling the overall coal index lower and easing fuel pressure for power plants.
8Steel-grade coal, meanwhile, showed divergent price movements across grades.
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8CERC has ruled that post-bid tariff renegotiation does not dilute Change-in-Law protection, keeping policy-driven cost risks outside the developer’s balance sheet.
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8The state regulator adopts DEEP-portal discovered tariffs after benchmarking them against prevailing market and exchange prices
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8The power regulator has ruled that a post-bid GST hike cannot raise the adopted tariff, freezing the usage charge at the auction-stage ceiling.
8Any tax impact must be recovered separately through the Change-in-Law route.
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